About Me

I grew up in Durham, North Carolina. I did something when I was 22 that changed the game: I moved to New York City. I live, breathe and bleed DUKE University, namely DUKE basketball. Krzyzewski is an added word to my spell-check dictionary as I use it nearly everyday. I met my Boston-born wife, Ariana, a DUKE grad, in NYC, during grad school, when we both worked at a restaurant together... named Duke's (zero relation). My first name is Sarah - with an "h", my middle name is my Grandmother’s maiden name and my last name (apparently) means Goose of the Forest.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Coach Collins: Our Guy

I remember where I was on that Saturday in April of 2008 when the bottom line on ESPN turned red. There was breaking news in Men’s College Basketball and as I read it, my heart sank. Johnny Dawkins was leaving DUKE to become the Head Coach at Stanford. I was standing in a bar in New York City and I felt like the rug had been pulled out from under me. I had suffered this same feeling before around this same time of year in 1999 when I read that Elton Brand, William Avery and Corey Maggette were leaving DUKE to go to the NBA and also in 1997 when I read that Tommy Amaker was packing his bags and going to Seton Hall. And now, here I am again… getting ready to watch another good-bye unfold: Chris Collins is leaving to become the Head Coach at Northwestern. This is the guy whom I watched play from my seat in Cameron Indoor Stadium starting when I was 11 years old. This is the guy with the beautiful face but an even more beautiful three-point shot. This is the guy who never faltered in his abilities as a player, his leadership or his love for his school; even when the wins weren’t coming in droves as they once had. This is the guy who ranks 11th in all-time three-point field goals at DUKE. This is the guy who returned to his school in 2000 to add another “C” to his name: Coach. This is the guy who went toe to toe (and nose to nose) with UNC’s Matt Doherty during a heated rivalry game. This is the guy who is credited with getting the name Scheyer on the back of a DUKE jersey. This is the guy who is revered by many other DUKE greats like Mike Dunleavy, Jason Williams, Chris Duhon, J.J. Redick, DeMarcus Nelson, Gerald Henderson, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, Austin Rivers, Seth Curry, Tyler Thornton and Quinn Cook as the person who guided them to the players that they became. This is the guy who has 8 ACC Tournament Championships, 4 ACC Regular Season Titles and 2 NCAA National Championships under his belt. This is the guy who worked first-hand with the USA National Teams that won the FIBA World Championship in 2010 and Gold Medals in the Olympics in 2008 and 2012. This is that guy and that guy is family.
Family: It’s the same reason why it was so hard to watch Amaker and Dawkins move on and why it is always so hard to lose players early to the draft; these guys aren’t just anybody- they are family. The camera shoots over to the DUKE bench in the middle of a game and you see our 7 players in DUKE uniforms. But, then the camera pans a little to the left and you see our 4 former players sitting in suits surrounding Coach K. This isn’t a team of one guy from here and another from there and another from somewhere over there. This is a team of family members. This is a group that shares common pasts and common goals for the future. And now, again, we are losing a member of our family. It will never be the same to look at the DUKE bench and not see our former #20 there. It will never be the same to have another Coach doing our halftime media interviews. It will never be the same to see the team photo and not see him there. But, we must recognize and always remember how lucky we have been for the past 21 years and also know that as lucky as Northwestern is to be getting Coach Chris Collins, no matter what; he will always be our guy. DUKE Basketball Never Stops and DUKE family is for life.
Congratulations, Coach Collins. You deserve only the very best.

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

In Case You Wanted To See A Perfect Bracket

Bracket Time... It's Bracket Time!!


Bracket by Sarah Goswick


Bracket by Ariana Goswick


Alternate Bracket by Sarah Goswick *

* Note: My Alternate Bracket is the bracket that I did following the trend from my March 1, 2013 post entitled History Repeats Itself.  My four Final Four teams are the four (of five) National Title contender teams that did not have a losing streak during the regular season.  (Sorry, Marquette... you never had a losing streak but I had to go with Indiana over you.  My apologies.)

Midnight Madness to March Madness: Que Sera, Sera



It’s now been 5 months and 8 days since Midnight Madness. 159 days have gone by and this season, with every passing day, what we thought we knew one day was turned completely upside down the next.  But, nonetheless, we are here.  We’ve made it to March Madness.  The field is set.  The matchups will soon begin.  But before they do, let’s take a look back at how we got here.  Because, as they say, you can’t know where you’re going until you know where you’ve been.

First, a look by way of charts… four charts to be exact. 

These first two charts show where teams started out in the two main polls- the AP Poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll (with columns also highlighting where these teams started and ended in terms of NCAA Tournament seeding):

AP PollStartedFinished
NCAA
Tourney Seed
Seed from Lunardi's
First Bracket Projection
8/13/2012
Indiana1411
Louisville2211
Kentucky3
Unranked
Received 0 votes
Did Not Make
NCAA Tournament
1
Ohio State4724
Michigan51042
NC State6
Unranked
Received 0 votes
83
Kansas7312
DUKE8624
Syracuse91642
Florida101433
UNC11
Unranked
Received 51 votes
83
Arizona122166
UCLA132461
Michigan State14932
Mizzou15
Unranked
Received 0 votes
96
Creighton162275
Memphis171964
UNLV18
Unranked
Received 38 votes
55
Baylor19
Unranked
Received 0 votes
Did Not Make
NCAA Tournament
4
San Diego State20Unranked78
Gonzaga21115
Notre Dame222378
Wisconsin231853
UCONN23
Unranked
Received 0 votes
IneligiblePost-Season Ban
Cincy24
Unranked
Received 0 votes
106
Florida State25
Unranked
Received 14 votes
Did Not Make
NCAA Tournament
9
Miami
Unranked
Received 8 votes
529
Georgetown
Unranked
Received 9 votes
828
New Mexico
Unranked
Received 9 votes
10311
Kansas State
Unranked
Received 12 votes
1248
St. Louis
Unranked
Received 46 votes
1347
Marquette
Unranked
Received 23 votes
1535
Oklahoma State
Unranked
Received 14 votes
175
Was not projected to
make the NCAA Tournament
Pittsburgh
Unranked
Received 32 votes
2086
Oregon
Unranked
Received 0 votes
2512
13 (As part of the
play-in game)


USA Today
Coaches Poll
StartedFinished
NCAA Tourney
Seed
Seed from Lunardi's
First Bracket Projection:
8/13/2012
Indiana1411
Louisville2211
Kentucky3
Unranked
Received 0 votes
Did Not Make
NCAA Tournament
1
Ohio State4624
Michigan51142
NC State6
Unranked
Received 0 votes
83
Kansas7312
DUKE8724
Syracuse91842
Florida101233
Arizona112066
UNC12
Unranked
Received 37 votes
83
UCLA13
Unranked
Received 46 votes
61
Michigan State14932
Creighton152175
Memphis161564
Mizzou17
Unranked
Received 0 votes
96
Baylor18
Unranked
Received 0 votes
Did Not Make
NCAA Tournament
4
UNLV19
Unranked
Received 3 votes
55
San Diego State20
Unranked
Received 0 votes
78
Wisconsin211753
Gonzaga22115
Notre Dame23
Unranked
Received 26 votes
78
Florida State24
Unranked
Received 0 votes
Did Not Make
NCAA Tournament
9
Texas24
Unranked
Received 0 votes
Did Not Make
NCAA Tournament
7
Cincy24
Unranked
Received 0 votes
106
Miami
Unranked
Received 2 votes
429
Georgetown
Unranked
Received 0 votes
828
New Mexico
Unranked
Received 10 votes
10311
St. Louis
Unranked
Received 58 votes
1347
Kansas State
Unranked
Received 13 votes
1448
Marquette
Unranked
Received 8 votes
1635
Oklahoma State
Unranked
Received 6 votes
195
Was not projected to make
the NCAA Tournament
Pittsburgh
Unranked
Received 9 votes
2286
VCU
Unranked
Received 40 votes
23510
Oregon
Unranked
Received 0 votes
241213 (As part of the play-in game)
St. Mary's
Unranked
Received 11 votes
2511 (Play-In Game)9

The next two charts show a more specific look at teams that underachieved and overachieved in terms of the NCAA Tournament projections, namely showing who was expected to make it and didn't as well as those who no one saw coming but are dancing all the same:

Projected to Make the NCAA Tourney but did NOT:Projected Seed from Lunardi's 8/13/2012 Bracket
Cal State Fullerton16 (As a play-in team)
Savannah State16 (As a play-in team)
Illinois State11
Vermont15
Kentucky1
Charleston Southern16 (As a play-in team)
Texas Southern16 (As a play-in team)
Florida State9
Massachusetts12
Murray State13
Ohio11
Detroit14
Tennessee10
Stephen F. Austin16
Drexel9
BYU12 (As a play-in team)
Mercer14
St. Joseph's10
Robert Morris15
Purdue12
Baylor4
Northern Iowa13 (As a play-in team)
Alabama11
Texas  7



NOT projected to Make the NCAA Tourney (from Lunardi's 8/13/12 Bracket) but DIDNCAA Seed
Western Kentucky16
Akron12
Northwestern State14
Oklahoma10
Florida Gulf Coast15
LIU Brooklyn16 (As a play-in team)
James Madison16 (As a play-in team)
Butler6
Illinois7
Colorado10
Pacific15
NC A&T16 (As a play-in team)
Liberty16 (As a play-in team)
Colorado State8
Oklahoma State5
Valparaiso14
Albany15
Southern University16
Wichita State9
Ole Miss12
Boise State13 (As a play-in team)
La Salle13 (As a play-in team)
Belmont11


And finally, we’ll look at a brief individual snapshot of many of the teams (in the order in which they were ranked in the AP Preseason Poll):


Indiana: Started strong, finished strong... stayed solid throughout the year.  Won the Big 10 outright, and that's nothing to scoff at - even if they were predicted to do so.

Louisville: Started strong, finished strong… stayed solid throughout most of the year - had a small slip-up to the tune of a 3-game losing streak, but they erased that memory by cutting down the Big East Tourney nets in Madison Square Garden.

Kentucky: Arguably the biggest letdown team of the year.  Whether they were over-hyped in the pre-season (they actually had first place votes, OK?!) or fell apart as the year went on, to say they underwhelmed would be an understatement.  Big Blue Nation may not have expected to repeat as NCAA Champions (although they probably did expect this), but they did not expect to lose in the first round of the NIT.

Ohio State: Started solid, finished solid.  In the most difficult league this year, they managed to stay (much more than) afloat and also win their conference tournament.  That’s a nice head of steam rolling into the Big Dance.

Michigan: May not have ended the season the way they had hoped but they (like quite a few teams) did sit at the #1 spot this season and still managed to lock up a #2 seed.

NC State:  A serious disappointment - maybe not as bad as Kentucky’s (since NC State is still dancing), but this team started in the top-10 in both polls, was projected to win the ACC and was also looking at a #3 seed.  They finished by receiving no votes in either poll, tied for fourth in the ACC and as a #8 seed in the tournament.  Not how the Pack Backers were thinking the year would go.

Kansas: I have to say that I thought this team was not worth its pre-season merit due to how many players it lost from last season.  I will readily admit that I was wrong.  Yes, there were slip-ups along the way (TCU, Baylor), and this team is far from invincible, but this team not only proved themselves over the course of the year; they actually improved their stock.



DUKE: Started and finished in about the same place.  Of course, what these numbers don’t tell is the middle part of the story that includes facts like the top RPI and one of the top Strengths of Schedule.  They were ranked for several weeks as the #1 team and as a full-strength team; they have only lost once.  They may have started and ended in the middle of the top-10, but they spent a good part of the season on top.



Syracuse:  Saved themselves from entering the “letdown team” conversation with an impressive showing at the Big East tournament.  But, nonetheless, they blew a 15-point lead in that game (to go on and lose by 17) and finished quite a bit lower in the rankings than where they started.  No one is looking past them, but I doubt too many people have them getting to Atlanta either.



Florida: Started and finished right about in line.  Had flashes of excellence throughout the year and moments leaving Gators fans scratching their heads (meltdown at the end of the Arizona game, substantial loss to Arkansas and loss in the SEC Tournament Finals to Marshall Henderson’s Ole Miss squad).  Which team will show up this week remains to be seen. 



UNC: Things started out good for UNC in terms of expectations.  Then things went really really wrong (in Maui, in Indiana, against Texas, 0-2 to start things off in the ACC).  Then things went really right when Roy put the best players on the floor at the same time.  Things came somewhat unhinged in Chapel Hill to close out the regular season but the Tar Heels put together one of the more impressive 38 minutes of basketball in the ACC Championship game.  This team can be lights out or they can be shut out… you just never know. 

Arizona: In terms of seeding, Arizona didn’t lose any footing over the year.  But, they also didn’t gain any.  Having started the season on a 14 game winning streak, it may have been somewhat surprising to see them end the year ranked 20th and 21st in the polls and what was probably harder for the Wildcats fans to wrap their heads around: they went 0-3 against UCLA.  I doubt that sits well.

UCLA: Speak of the devil.  UCLA did not fall apart completely (let’s see how the first round game goes, though), but they certainly weren’t blowing anyone’s minds (outside of the Arizona games) with their production this year.  Given the level of talent this team had, albeit freshmen talent; Bruins fans were expecting more.  To start ranked in the top 15 and finish unranked is probably as hard to swallow as is the fact that they were a projected 1 seed when the year started and now, they are lucky (and I mean lucky­) to have that 6 seed.

Michigan State: Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Tom Izzo’s team overachieved.  Yeah, I thought you may have heard that one before. Another year, another success.  Now, let’s not book their tickets to Atlanta or anything yet as they are in the toughest region but I would caution people to ever overlook a Tom Izzo squad.  It never seems to matter the year or the roster- you know they’re going to be there.  They were projected to be a 3 and are coming in as a 2 and after having endured the conference schedule that they did; that’s a feat.

Mizzou: Somewhat of a disappointment.  In their first season in the SEC, they did not do much to impress.  They did not receive a single vote for rankings at the end of the year (after starting in the top 20) and while they may be dancing (as a 9 seed), their first game may turn out to be a lot like their first game from last year’s tournament- only without the word “upset” attached to it.

Creighton: Stayed pretty much on par with expectations.  Started top 15 and finished to 25. Projected to win their conference; won conference.  Projected to win their conference tournament; won their conference tournament.  Don’t bet against that McDermott duo.

Memphis: Started and finished about exactly on par with expectations as well.  Undefeated in the C-USA and won the conference tournament as well- even if it did take 2 OTs.

UNLV: Started out a little stronger than they finished in terms of rankings but stayed on par in terms of seeding for the tournament.  Losing to UNC at the time they did didn’t help them much, but they still finished 3rd in their league and are walking in as a #5 seed.  OK job.

Baylor: Big disappointment here.  Removing their 23 point win over Kansas in early March (which, yes, is nothing to scoff at), what else did Baylor do here?  They lost 14 games total, finished at .500 in their conference and whittled away a projected #4 seed to a… no seed whatsoever.

San Diego State: In terms of rankings, this was a disappointment… they fell out of the top 20 to go on to receive no votes from either panel.  But, they did improve their seeding and honestly, after their up and down season; that’s probably good enough.

Gonzaga:  Hands down the biggest overachiever in the group.  Say what you want about who they played (or didn’t play) but the fact of the matter is- with the exception of two games, they also didn’t lose.  They finished the season ranked #1 and also with a #1 seed.  Not bad for a team who barely made the top 25 and was a projected #5 seed when we kicked this season off.

Notre Dame: Despite the fact that they finished outside of the top 25 (after starting just inside of it), their seeding slightly improved and of course- they didn’t just beat Louisville.  They didn’t just beat Louisville in 5 OTs.  They beat Louisville in 5 OTs with essentially only their bench playing for the better part of the game.  Don’t sleep on this team.  Or, ya know, watch them go out in the first round.  That’s the beauty, isn’t it?!

Wisconsin: This would be one of the teams where I would say: don’t let the rankings fool you.  Yes they improved both their ranking and their seeding over the course of the year but what they did that was more significant was this: beat Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota.  Oh, and they also beat Michigan and Indiana… two times each.  I’m glad the team I pull for isn’t facing them right out of the gate.

UConn: Ranked to start, no votes for a ranking to finish.  Tournament ineligible.  No elaboration warranted at this time.

Cincinnati: Well, their ranking certainly didn’t stick but they’re still dancing.  No real great wins to write home about but they’ll get their chance to show us what they’ve got (or what they don’t) when they face Creighton this week.

Florida State: Definitely not your last year’s FSU team.  No votes, no seed.  No more to say.

Texas: How this team beat UNC (without Myck Kabongo) by nearly 20, I’ll never understand. And, looking at the way their season ended (no votes for a ranking, no seed), that’s about all I can say.  I guess we’ll just leave it there.

Miami: Most impressive team?  Well, I would hardly argue with anyone who said so.  This team started out basically off the radar entirely and finished with a #2 seed.  They also beat DUKE by 27, UNC by 26, won the ACC Regular Season, won the ACC Tournament and look solid at every single position.  I find it to be a serious error that they weren’t given a #1 seed and someone somewhere will rue the chip they just put on these guys’ shoulders.

Georgetown:  If it isn’t Miami as the most impressive, it’s Georgetown.  This team, led by Otto Porter, has blown expectations out of the water… which, probably wasn’t hard to do considering they had none from anyone. Seriously?  This team didn’t get a single vote in the preseason rankings and now are sitting on the #2 line?  Job well done, JT3.
Rather than keep saying the same thing I have now said for Miami and Georgetown let’s just go ahead and name the other 9 teams that have really shown up this year (by way of final rankings) when no one expected them to: New Mexico, St. Louis (no better way to honor Majerus than what St. Louis is doing: winning), Kansas StateMarquette (Buzz at his best?), Oklahoma State (a team that was not projected to even get a bid to the NCAA Tournament and now sits as a #5 seed), PittsburghVCU (Shaka Smart, anyone?), Oregon (won the Pac 12) and St. Mary’s (Dellevedova. Can't forget that name).
The point of this is simply to show that nothing is certain.  Just when all of Big Blue Nation was ready to start packing their bags for Atlanta, they find themselves trying to both figure out what happened against Robert Morris and sell their Final Four tickets to friends they know in Coral Gables.  That’s what makes this time of year so fun.  This is March Madness- there’s nothing like it… and what’s more maddening; it’s often nothing like you thought it would have been.




Sunday, March 17, 2013

"Will We Be A One Seed... Again?!"



We've waited.  We've bombarded Joe Lunardi with a bevy of tweets asking where our team will be come March 17, 2013 at 6:00pm.  We've then re-tweeted Joe Lunardi to tell him he doesn't know what he is talking about.

The waiting is over.  The field is set.  And you may want to be seated for the information I am about to share with you.  Look at your brackets.  You see the four regions?  See those four teams with the #1 beside their name?  Notice anything strange about them?  Look again.  There's Louisville.  There's Kansas.  There's Indiana.  And there's Gonzaga.  Do you see it yet?

This is the 24th NCAA Tournament since 1990.  And since 1990, this is only the 5th time that you looked at your brackets, looked at your #1 seeds and have not seen either DUKE or UNC as one.  5 years... out of 24?  Come on now.  That's not normal.

Let me break it down for you by year just to seriously drill this home.

First, DUKE:

1990: #3 seed
1991: #2 seed
1992: #1 seed
1993: #3 seed
1994: #2 seed
1995: didn't go to the tournament
1996: #8 seed
1997: #2 seed
1998: #1 seed
1999: #1 seed
2000: #1 seed
2001: #1 seed
2002: #1 seed
2003: #3 seed
2004: #1 seed
2005: #1 seed
2006: #1 seed
2007: #6 seed
2008: #2 seed
2009: #2 seed
2010: #1 seed
2011: #1 seed
2012: #2 seed
2013: #2 seed

Now, UNC:

1990: #8 seed
1991: #1 seed
1992: #4 seed
1993: #1 seed
1994: #1 seed
1995: #2 seed
1996: #6 seed
1997: #1 seed
1998: #1 seed
1999: #3 seed
2000: #8 seed
2001: #2 seed
2002: didn't go to the tournament
2003: didn't go to the tournament
2004: #6 seed
2005: #1 seed
2006: #3 seed
2007: #1 seed
2008: #1 seed
2009: #1 seed
2010: didn't go to the tournament
2011: #2 seed
2012: #1 seed
2013: #8 seed


Now, full disclosure time:  I saw this trend on Friday afternoon.  I was fully prepared to write this today with the punchline that 20 out of 24 years, DUKE and/or UNC has been a #1 seed.  Then, DUKE strolled into the Greensboro Coliseum on Friday night... walking in as the overall #1 and walking out as a #2.  I didn't get to deliver the punchline that I had so desired.  I didn't get to drill home how we (us Tobacco Road-ers) have held court as a #1 seed 80% of the time over the last 24 years... but, nonetheless, I'm still here to remind you that we've lived on the one line for 79% of the time.

We don't know how this year will turn out.  Hell, it could be another year with a bunch of Cinderella teams.  Or, it could be a year totally by the books.  But, one thing is for sure: two teams did not disappoint.  And why?  Because statistics show us; they never, ever do.

Way to go, DUKE and UNC.  Another banner year.  Just like the 23 that preceded it.