What? Where? Hoo?

From rushing the court one Thursday night...

...To having your NCAA Tournament bubble burst the next...

...Cavalier life.

From a road loss one Thursday night...

...To still sitting on a #1 seed for the NCAA Tournament the next...

...DUKE life.

History Repeats Itself

Today is March 1st, 2013. March Madness has not arrived yet (I know this because my planner still indicates eighteen more days until Christmas in March); but oddly enough, this whole season has mirrored March Madness. Every time a team gets a little bit of steam, BOOM, down they go. This is happening all over the country; night after night, team after team. I bet this will be the most maddening tournament in recent history. Or, you know, it’ll go all chalk.

That said; could you even venture a guess as to what chalk would be right now? (Well, no, because the brackets aren’t drawn yet, but you get my point). Not one team out there is likely to take over the field; and I am expecting to see this tournament pull out all the stops. Could this be the year a #16 seed beats a #1 seed? I wouldn’t for one moment bat an eye at that idea.

So, this got me thinking- there has to be some smoking gun to open my eyes to the outliers of this tournament, right? Seek and ye shall find. I made a list of the teams I think pose the greatest threat to cutting down the nets in Atlanta. And of course some I had to throw in there because while they may not be all that threatening, due to their recent surges, I’m not comfortable discounting them just yet.

My list is as follows (in no particular order):

Indiana

DUKE

Michigan

Florida

Louisville

Syracuse

Kansas

Gonzaga

Ohio State

Miami

Georgetown

Michigan State

Arizona

Marquette

UNC

NC State

Notre Dame

Butler

Akron

Creighton

Saint Mary’s

VCU

Wisconsin

Kansas State

Saint Louis

Oklahoma State

Memphis

I poked and prodded through all 27 of these teams' statistics- their points per game, players, coaches, home records, neutral records, road records… everything but the color of their uniforms, really. And finally, something stood out. All of these 27 teams have had a losing streak at some point in the season except for 6. Check it:

Indiana: No losing streak to date

DUKE: No losing streak to date

Michigan: 2 game losing streak to date: Wisconsin, Michigan State

Florida: No losing streak to date

Louisville: 3 game losing streak to date: Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown

Syracuse: Two 2 game losing streaks to date: Villanova, Pittsburgh and Georgetown, Marquette

Kansas: 3 game losing streak to date: Oklahoma State, TCU, Oklahoma

Gonzaga: No losing streak to date

Ohio State: 2 game losing streak to date: Michigan, Indiana

Miami: 2 game losing streak to date: Arizona, Indiana State

Georgetown: 2 game losing streak to date: Marquette, Pittsburgh

Michigan State: 2 game losing streak to date: Indiana, Ohio State

Arizona: 2 game losing streak to date: California, Colorado

Marquette: No losing streak to date

UNC: Two 2 game losing streaks to date: Virginia, Miami and Miami, DUKE

NC State: 3 game losing streak to date: Virginia, Miami, DUKE

Notre Dame: 2 game losing streak to date: UConn, St. John’s

Butler: No losing streak to date

Akron: 2 game losing streak to date: Creighton, Detroit

Creighton: 3 game losing streak to date: Indiana State, Illinois State, Northern Iowa

Saint Mary’s: 2 game losing streak to date: Pacific, Georgia Tech

VCU: Two 2 game losing streaks to date: DUKE, Missouri and Richmond, La Salle

Wisconsin: 2 game losing streak to date: Iowa, Michigan State

Kansas State: 2 game losing streak to date: Kansas, Iowa State

Saint Louis: 2 game losing streak to date: Temple, Rhode Island

Oklahoma State: 2 game losing streak to date: Gonzaga, Kansas State

Memphis: 2 game losing streak to date: VCU, Minnesota

One would guess the occurrence of losing streaks could allow us to trim down the list of potential contenders, but only if those statistics have shown to mean something in the past. So, have they? Oh, they have. Check it:

Since UNLV cut down the nets at the end of the 1989-90 season, only 6 teams that went on to win it all have been involved in a losing streak at any point of the regular season:

UNC 1992-93

Arizona 1996-97

UConn 2003-04

Florida 2005-06

Florida 2006-07

UConn 2010-11

The other 17 teams never lost consecutive regular season games.

Over the course of 23 years, 74% of the National Champions have never strung together back-to-back losses. Read differently: Over the course of 23 years, only 26% of the National Champions have overcome dropping at least two consecutive regular season games on their way to climbing the ladder and cutting down the nets. In a normal year that matters. In this crazy year where nothing seems to make any sense, it may really matter.

It at least matters today, March 1, 2013, when we are all trying to find something to separate some teams from the pack. Each week thousands of fans write in to every single analyst looking for some sort of reassurance as to why their team stands a chance to win it all. Well, for 6 of these fan bases, I just gave you some really good ammo. But don’t hang your head, other 21 teams; they’re just numbers. And hey, Bluejays, Cards, Jayhawks and Wolfpack fans- don’t get discouraged about your three losses in a row- it didn’t stop the Gators in 2006 (the only team since 1990 to have more than two consecutive regular season losses- three to be exact- and still go on to win it all).

Keep an eye on those 6 though. There are still enough regular season games left to trip up 5 of them (Indiana, DUKE, Florida, Butler and Marquette). Oh, and don’t look now but Indiana, DUKE, Florida and Butler are each sitting on a loss heading into this weekend. Marquette is safe, at least until next week. And Gonzaga? After surviving BYU’s rally last night, they are sitting on a win as they head back home to take on Portland this Saturday. Did I mention that this will be their final game of the regular season? Yep, Gonzaga is heading into the post-season having had zero losing streaks this year. As history has shown here, that zero may be the most important number of their year. (Vegas odds had Gonzaga as a 12-1 favorite to win it all only a few days ago… you may want to go ahead and lock in those odds.)

So Merry Christmas to all! Or as some prefer to say: Happy March Madness!

Dare to Compare?

Is it the competitiveness?  The talent?  The athleticism?  The showmanship?  The heart-pounding action?  The thrill of the victory?  What is it about sports that draws us in?  For me, sports provide an outlet for debate.  As I stated in my profile, I live for the give-and-take and with sports- the debates never die.  No one ever really wins because if someone wins, the debates end and then we all really lose. 

One of my favorite debates is the “all-time” debate.  “Who’s the best all-time Coach?”  “Which team was the best all-time team not to win a title?”  “What was the greatest play ever from March Madness?”  There’s no right answer to any of these questions (yes there is, of course: Mike Krzyzewski, DUKE 1998-99 and The Shot), but the debating is what makes it so fun.  You could ask 10 people the same question and get 10 totally different, yet equally correct answers. 

James, Ben and I gave each other this initial task:

Let’s get a best one-and-done team.  You have to pick a TEAM, not just the best players.

That didn’t take long enough I guess because within 15 minutes, we had upped the ante to this:

See if you can come up with a team for each class (i.e. one-and-done [freshmen], left after sophomore year, etc.).  If we choose players since 1980 only, I’ll bet there is zero chance the freshmen or seniors win.

Quick sidenote: I have to give ESPN’s Jason King (@JasonKingESPN) credit here because while James, Ben and I debate these kinds of topics day after day, it was Jason’s “King’s Court” from this week that really got this debate going.

This task took us significantly longer, but we finally decided on the following picks:

Freshmen:

PG: Derrick Rose

SG: Tyreke Evans

F: Kevin Durant

F: Carmelo Anthony

C:  Anthony Davis

Sophomores:

PG: Allen Iverson

SG: Jerry Stackhouse

F: Chris Webber

F: Rasheed Wallace

C:  Elton Brand

Juniors:

PG: Jason Williams

SG: Ray Allen

F: Michael Jordan

F: (H)Akeem Olajuwon

C:  Shaquille O’Neal

Seniors:

PG: Bobby Hurley (or Randolph Childress if this team is too much DUKE for your liking.  But for below, I’m using Hurley)

SG: J.J. Redick

F: Christian Laettner

F: Len Bias

C:  Patrick Ewing

Never Played in the NCAA (No NCAA Team)

PG: Tony Parker

SG: Kobe Bryant

F: LeBron James

F: Amare Stoudemire

C: Kevin Garnett

Fighting amongst myself took a great deal of time.  Do I want Kenny Anderson or Allen Iverson?  Do I want Patrick Ewing as my Center and Laettner and Bias as my Forwards? Or do I want to go with a frontcourt of Bias, Laettner and Derrick Coleman?  How do I not have Danny Manning on the list?  And Tim Duncan?  And Chris Mullin? (James, Ben and I decided that even though we are only naming five players per group, we have to acknowledge that while Manning, Duncan and Mullin are technically not on the team, they really are on the team.  It’s our game.  We make the rules.)

So, those are our teams.  The End.

Totally not the end.  What’s the point of making teams if you aren’t going to have them “play”?  (Incidentally, while on this topic; why play little league soccer if no one is keeping score?  I really don’t understand that.  What a waste of 90 minutes.  I digress...) 

When we started this, James hypothesized that there was zero chance that our Freshmen team or Senior team would win.  At first I thought he might be right.  Now I’m not so sure; at least I’m not so sure that there would be zero chance with regard to the Seniors. 

To begin, we must momentarily discount the Never Played in the NCAA team.  Why?  Because they never played in college and we are judging everyone else by what they did in college alone.  Otherwise, I’m taking Jordan’s team and it matters nil who else is on his team.

The first team that I would say is out is the Sophomores.  There’s so much talent there, obviously.  I mean- the trio of Allen Iverson, Jerry Stackhouse and Chris Webber would definitely win if this were a contest based solely on OH-MY-GOD-he-did-NOT-just-do-that-moments.  And halfway through the game, Allen Iverson would need a good five minutes just to walk around and collect all of the ankles he had just broken.  But it is a somewhat smaller team in comparison to the others; and while Rasheed Wallace was/is a maniac and Elton Brand was so crafty and superb in college, in comparison to the other teams, they just don’t measure up.  They do match up better in terms of toughness when compared to the likes of say, the Freshmen team that has Davis and Carmelo and Durant as their frontcourt; but with Carmelo and Durant’s ability to get their shot anywhere at any time, I’m not sure the game would come down to toughness. 

But, speaking of the Freshmen, to me, they are the next to go.  The level of athleticism on that team is out of this world and it’s no coincidence that the only two freshmen to win the NCAA National Player of the Year Award are each on the team (Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis).  This team would score and it would score a LOT.  I don’t watch every OKC game but I can say with conviction that each time I do and Kevin Durant shoots, it’s aut-o-mat-ic, just like when he was in Texas.  The guy is out of his mind.  Plus, Derrick Rose at the PG spot?  Yes, please.  Speaking of Derrick Rose- man, I can’t wait for Chicago to get him back.  His absence is a disservice to the league.  And then you’ve got Anthony Davis protecting the rim.  Who’s going to score on him?  Not many.  Well, actually… let me retract that statement: pretty much the entire Senior team would score on him.

Anthony Davis was a magnificent rim defender at Kentucky in 2011-12 and he was able to pretty much have his way in the paint on both ends of the floor, night after night.  But, and this is not a knock against Davis, who was he playing against?  Was the inside competition really that overpowering and dominant?  I’m not so sure it was.  Now, with the Seniors, you’ve got Bobby Hurley, the all-time assists leader a.k.a. “I’m going to find the best offensive option play after play after play”, J.J. Redick (floor spacing anyone?), Laettner, Ewing and Bias.  Can you imagine Patrick Ewing taking it to Anthony Davis?  It would be reminiscent of Ray Lewis “welcoming” Mark Sanchez to the NFL back in 2009.  In other words; it would be ugly.  The Seniors would have their way down low and then could even pull Laettner out to shoot it (I’ve heard he’s pretty good from about 15 feet out and I think there’s video to prove it too) and God knows J.J. isn’t missing many.  Len Bias is regarded as the best player to never play at the professional level.  I’m not sure we need to say more about him other than- what a shame.  So, this team is pretty unstoppable.  Pretty unstoppable.  But still: stoppable. 

Enter the Juniors.  This team has it all: the PG who can pass it and also shoot the lights out (just ask Maryland, the victims of his “Miracle Minute”).  Speaking of shooting the lights out: Ray Allen much?  Then there’s Michael Jordan.  Normally I would save him for the end and say simply this:  Michael.  Jeffrey.  Jordan.  But, we are talking about his college days, not NBA Jordan, so I can’t go off the deep end about him.  But, the guy, as James told me “was all that and a bag of chips.  He was a freak athlete as a freshman, but then became the total package in his sophomore and, especially, junior seasons.  It was very unusual for a freshman to play that much for Dean Smith.  Times were different.  That’s why he isn’t on the cover of Sports Illustrated when UNC was ranked #1 in the preseason of 1982.  Jordan was too good to keep down.”  Round the team out with Olajuwon and Shaq… ooooooh, that team is good.  That team is so good.  There is no weakness there (just so long as you keep Shaq off of the free throw line) and you have the ultimate clutch players in Jordan, Allen and Williams.  But, with that crop of talent, something tells me there wouldn’t be much need for clutch plays- they’re usually only needed in close games. 

The only thing left to do would be to try to compare the Juniors to the group that we set aside earlier: the guys that Never Played in the NCAA.  Honestly, I don’t have the desire to do this.  Why?  Because you know where it’s going.  Michael Jordan is on one team and LeBron James is on the other.  I refuse to add another dimension to the “Who’s Better?” debate between these two, even if it is pretty obvious who is better between UNC Jordan and NBA LeBron.  Besides, I do not understand how Kobe got bypassed in that conversation to begin with.  Even still, I’m not biting. 

Who's Number One?

I do not agree with NCAA basketball being handled the way of NCAA football, i.e., I don't agree with any team moving ahead of another team without that higher ranked team losing.  So, while it is obvious that DUKE's sixth ranked non-conference strength of schedule is far superior to Indiana's two-hundred and seventy-fifth ranked non-conference strength of schedule (www.kenpom.com), until Indiana loses; DUKE should happily reside at the second spot (barring any loss).  Yes, DUKE has beaten three top three teams- all of whom were in the Final Four last year.  And yes, Indiana has played teams like Coppin State, Ball State and Bryant University...  they played a rebuilding UNC team and a Georgetown team who celebrated a win over UCLA that now no one thinks is relevant after their clear and present dangerous fall of the face off the rankings.  I'd like to reiterate that I do not believe DUKE should be number one.  I wholeheartedly believe Indiana should be number one tomorrow at around 2pm when the rankings come out.  Why?  Because it will be December 3rd and it matters nil.  What matters is late March and the second Monday in April 2013 and in those days, when push comes to shove and you find out what your team is made of; I find comfort in believing that a #6 NCSOS will serve you far better than that #275 NCSOS.  

Welcome back to the national stage, Indiana.  We've all missed you.  It's been a while.