Midnight Madness to March Madness: Que Sera, Sera

It’s now been 5 months and 8 days since Midnight Madness. 159 days have gone by and this season, with every passing day, what we thought we knew one day was turned completely upside down the next.  But, nonetheless, we are here.  We’ve made it to March Madness.  The field is set.  The matchups will soon begin.  But before they do, let’s take a look back at how we got here.  Because, as they say, you can’t know where you’re going until you know where you’ve been.

First, a look by way of charts… four charts to be exact. 

These first two charts show where teams started out in the two main polls- the AP Poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll (with columns also highlighting where these teams started and ended in terms of NCAA Tournament seeding):

AP Poll	Started	Finished	NCAA Tourney Seed	Seed from Lunardi's First Bracket Projection 8/13/2012
Indiana	1	4	1	1
Louisville	2	2	1	1
Kentucky	3	Unranked Received 0 votes	Did Not Make NCAA Tournament	1
Ohio State	4	7	2	4
Michigan	5	10	4	2
NC State	6	Unranked Received 0 votes	8	3
Kansas	7	3	1	2
DUKE	8	6	2	4
Syracuse	9	16	4	2
Florida	10	14	3	3
UNC	11	Unranked Received 51 votes	8	3
Arizona	12	21	6	6
UCLA	13	24	6	1
Michigan State	14	9	3	2
Mizzou	15	Unranked Received 0 votes	9	6
Creighton	16	22	7	5
Memphis	17	19	6	4
UNLV	18	Unranked Received 38 votes	5	5
Baylor	19	Unranked Received 0 votes	Did Not Make NCAA Tournament	4
San Diego State	20	Unranked	7	8
Gonzaga	21	1	1	5
Notre Dame	22	23	7	8
Wisconsin	23	18	5	3
UCONN	23	Unranked Received 0 votes	Ineligible	Post-Season Ban
Cincy	24	Unranked Received 0 votes	10	6
Florida State	25	Unranked Received 14 votes	Did Not Make NCAA Tournament	9
Miami	Unranked Received 8 votes	5	2	9
Georgetown	Unranked Received 9 votes	8	2	8
New Mexico	Unranked Received 9 votes	10	3	11
Kansas State	Unranked Received 12 votes	12	4	8
St. Louis	Unranked Received 46 votes	13	4	7
Marquette	Unranked Received 23 votes	15	3	5
Oklahoma State	Unranked Received 14 votes	17	5	Was not projected to make the NCAA Tournament
Pittsburgh	Unranked Received 32 votes	20	8	6
Oregon	Unranked Received 0 votes	25	12	13 (As part of the play-in game)

USA Today Coaches Poll	Started	Finished	NCAA Tourney Seed	Seed from Lunardi's First Bracket Projection: 8/13/2012
Indiana	1	4	1	1
Louisville	2	2	1	1
Kentucky	3	Unranked Received 0 votes	Did Not Make NCAA Tournament	1
Ohio State	4	6	2	4
Michigan	5	11	4	2
NC State	6	Unranked Received 0 votes	8	3
Kansas	7	3	1	2
DUKE	8	7	2	4
Syracuse	9	18	4	2
Florida	10	12	3	3
Arizona	11	20	6	6
UNC	12	Unranked Received 37 votes	8	3
UCLA	13	Unranked Received 46 votes	6	1
Michigan State	14	9	3	2
Creighton	15	21	7	5
Memphis	16	15	6	4
Mizzou	17	Unranked Received 0 votes	9	6
Baylor	18	Unranked Received 0 votes	Did Not Make NCAA Tournament	4
UNLV	19	Unranked Received 3 votes	5	5
San Diego State	20	Unranked Received 0 votes	7	8
Wisconsin	21	17	5	3
Gonzaga	22	1	1	5
Notre Dame	23	Unranked Received 26 votes	7	8
Florida State	24	Unranked Received 0 votes	Did Not Make NCAA Tournament	9
Texas	24	Unranked Received 0 votes	Did Not Make NCAA Tournament	7
Cincy	24	Unranked Received 0 votes	10	6
Miami	Unranked Received 2 votes	4	2	9
Georgetown	Unranked Received 0 votes	8	2	8
New Mexico	Unranked Received 10 votes	10	3	11
St. Louis	Unranked Received 58 votes	13	4	7
Kansas State	Unranked Received 13 votes	14	4	8
Marquette	Unranked Received 8 votes	16	3	5
Oklahoma State	Unranked Received 6 votes	19	5	Was not projected to make the NCAA Tournament
Pittsburgh	Unranked Received 9 votes	22	8	6
VCU	Unranked Received 40 votes	23	5	10
Oregon	Unranked Received 0 votes	24	12	13 (As part of the play-in game)
St. Mary's	Unranked Received 11 votes	25	11 (Play-In Game)	9

The next two charts show a more specific look at teams that underachieved and overachieved in terms of the NCAA Tournament projections, namely showing who was expected to make it and didn't as well as those who no one saw coming but are dancing all the same:

Projected to Make the NCAA Tourney but did NOT:	Projected Seed from Lunardi's 8/13/2012 Bracket
Cal State Fullerton	16 (As a play-in team)
Savannah State	16 (As a play-in team)
Illinois State	11
Vermont	15
Kentucky	1
Charleston Southern	16 (As a play-in team)
Texas Southern	16 (As a play-in team)
Florida State	9
Massachusetts	12
Murray State	13
Ohio	11
Detroit	14
Tennessee	10
Stephen F. Austin	16
Drexel	9
BYU	12 (As a play-in team)
Mercer	14
St. Joseph's	10
Robert Morris	15
Purdue	12
Baylor	4
Northern Iowa	13 (As a play-in team)
Alabama	11
Texas	7

NOT projected to Make the NCAA Tourney (from Lunardi's 8/13/12 Bracket) but DID	NCAA Seed
Western Kentucky	16
Akron	12
Northwestern State	14
Oklahoma	10
Florida Gulf Coast	15
LIU Brooklyn	16 (As a play-in team)
James Madison	16 (As a play-in team)
Butler	6
Illinois	7
Colorado	10
Pacific	15
NC A&T	16 (As a play-in team)
Liberty	16 (As a play-in team)
Colorado State	8
Oklahoma State	5
Valparaiso	14
Albany	15
Southern University	16
Wichita State	9
Ole Miss	12
Boise State	13 (As a play-in team)
La Salle	13 (As a play-in team)
Belmont	11

And finally, we’ll look at a brief individual snapshot of many of the teams (in the order in which they were ranked in the AP Preseason Poll):

Indiana: Started strong, finished strong... stayed solid throughout the year.  Won the Big 10 outright, and that's nothing to scoff at - even if they were predicted to do so.

Louisville: Started strong, finished strong… stayed solid throughout most of the year - had a small slip-up to the tune of a 3-game losing streak, but they erased that memory by cutting down the Big East Tourney nets in Madison Square Garden.

Kentucky: Arguably the biggest letdown team of the year.  Whether they were over-hyped in the pre-season (they actually had first place votes, OK?!) or fell apart as the year went on, to say they underwhelmed would be an understatement.  Big Blue Nation may not have expected to repeat as NCAA Champions (although they probably did expect this), but they did not expect to lose in the first round of the NIT.

Ohio State: Started solid, finished solid.  In the most difficult league this year, they managed to stay (much more than) afloat and also win their conference tournament.  That’s a nice head of steam rolling into the Big Dance.

Michigan: May not have ended the season the way they had hoped but they (like quite a few teams) did sit at the #1 spot this season and still managed to lock up a #2 seed.

NC State:  A serious disappointment - maybe not as bad as Kentucky’s (since NC State is still dancing), but this team started in the top-10 in both polls, was projected to win the ACC and was also looking at a #3 seed.  They finished by receiving no votes in either poll, tied for fourth in the ACC and as a #8 seed in the tournament.  Not how the Pack Backers were thinking the year would go.

Kansas: I have to say that I thought this team was not worth its pre-season merit due to how many players it lost from last season.  I will readily admit that I was wrong.  Yes, there were slip-ups along the way (TCU, Baylor), and this team is far from invincible, but this team not only proved themselves over the course of the year; they actually improved their stock.

DUKE: Started and finished in about the same place.  Of course, what these numbers don’t tell is the middle part of the story that includes facts like the top RPI and one of the top Strengths of Schedule.  They were ranked for several weeks as the #1 team and as a full-strength team; they have only lost once.  They may have started and ended in the middle of the top-10, but they spent a good part of the season on top.

Syracuse:  Saved themselves from entering the “letdown team” conversation with an impressive showing at the Big East tournament.  But, nonetheless, they blew a 15-point lead in that game (to go on and lose by 17) and finished quite a bit lower in the rankings than where they started.  No one is looking past them, but I doubt too many people have them getting to Atlanta either.

Florida: Started and finished right about in line.  Had flashes of excellence throughout the year and moments leaving Gators fans scratching their heads (meltdown at the end of the Arizona game, substantial loss to Arkansas and loss in the SEC Tournament Finals to Marshall Henderson’s Ole Miss squad).  Which team will show up this week remains to be seen. 

UNC: Things started out good for UNC in terms of expectations.  Then things went really really wrong (in Maui, in Indiana, against Texas, 0-2 to start things off in the ACC).  Then things went really right when Roy put the best players on the floor at the same time.  Things came somewhat unhinged in Chapel Hill to close out the regular season but the Tar Heels put together one of the more impressive 38 minutes of basketball in the ACC Championship game.  This team can be lights out or they can be shut out… you just never know. 

Arizona: In terms of seeding, Arizona didn’t lose any footing over the year.  But, they also didn’t gain any.  Having started the season on a 14 game winning streak, it may have been somewhat surprising to see them end the year ranked 20^th and 21^st in the polls and what was probably harder for the Wildcats fans to wrap their heads around: they went 0-3 against UCLA.  I doubt that sits well.

UCLA: Speak of the devil.  UCLA did not fall apart completely (let’s see how the first round game goes, though), but they certainly weren’t blowing anyone’s minds (outside of the Arizona games) with their production this year.  Given the level of talent this team had, albeit freshmen talent; Bruins fans were expecting more.  To start ranked in the top 15 and finish unranked is probably as hard to swallow as is the fact that they were a projected 1 seed when the year started and now, they are lucky (and I mean lucky­) to have that 6 seed.

Michigan State: Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Tom Izzo’s team overachieved.  Yeah, I thought you may have heard that one before. Another year, another success.  Now, let’s not book their tickets to Atlanta or anything yet as they are in the toughest region but I would caution people to ever overlook a Tom Izzo squad.  It never seems to matter the year or the roster- you know they’re going to be there.  They were projected to be a 3 and are coming in as a 2 and after having endured the conference schedule that they did; that’s a feat.

Mizzou: Somewhat of a disappointment.  In their first season in the SEC, they did not do much to impress.  They did not receive a single vote for rankings at the end of the year (after starting in the top 20) and while they may be dancing (as a 9 seed), their first game may turn out to be a lot like their first game from last year’s tournament- only without the word “upset” attached to it.

Creighton: Stayed pretty much on par with expectations.  Started top 15 and finished to 25. Projected to win their conference; won conference.  Projected to win their conference tournament; won their conference tournament.  Don’t bet against that McDermott duo.

Memphis: Started and finished about exactly on par with expectations as well.  Undefeated in the C-USA and won the conference tournament as well- even if it did take 2 OTs.

UNLV: Started out a little stronger than they finished in terms of rankings but stayed on par in terms of seeding for the tournament.  Losing to UNC at the time they did didn’t help them much, but they still finished 3^rd in their league and are walking in as a #5 seed.  OK job.

Baylor: Big disappointment here.  Removing their 23 point win over Kansas in early March (which, yes, is nothing to scoff at), what else did Baylor do here?  They lost 14 games total, finished at .500 in their conference and whittled away a projected #4 seed to a… no seed whatsoever.

San Diego State: In terms of rankings, this was a disappointment… they fell out of the top 20 to go on to receive no votes from either panel.  But, they did improve their seeding and honestly, after their up and down season; that’s probably good enough.

Gonzaga:  Hands down the biggest overachiever in the group.  Say what you want about who they played (or didn’t play) but the fact of the matter is- with the exception of two games, they also didn’t lose.  They finished the season ranked #1 and also with a #1 seed.  Not bad for a team who barely made the top 25 and was a projected #5 seed when we kicked this season off.

Notre Dame: Despite the fact that they finished outside of the top 25 (after starting just inside of it), their seeding slightly improved and of course- they didn’t just beat Louisville.  They didn’t just beat Louisville in 5 OTs.  They beat Louisville in 5 OTs with essentially only their bench playing for the better part of the game.  Don’t sleep on this team.  Or, ya know, watch them go out in the first round.  That’s the beauty, isn’t it?!

Wisconsin: This would be one of the teams where I would say: don’t let the rankings fool you.  Yes they improved both their ranking and their seeding over the course of the year but what they did that was more significant was this: beat Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota.  Oh, and they also beat Michigan and Indiana… two times each.  I’m glad the team I pull for isn’t facing them right out of the gate.

UConn: Ranked to start, no votes for a ranking to finish.  Tournament ineligible.  No elaboration warranted at this time.

Cincinnati: Well, their ranking certainly didn’t stick but they’re still dancing.  No real great wins to write home about but they’ll get their chance to show us what they’ve got (or what they don’t) when they face Creighton this week.

Florida State: Definitely not your last year’s FSU team.  No votes, no seed.  No more to say.

Texas: How this team beat UNC (without Myck Kabongo) by nearly 20, I’ll never understand. And, looking at the way their season ended (no votes for a ranking, no seed), that’s about all I can say.  I guess we’ll just leave it there.

Miami: Most impressive team?  Well, I would hardly argue with anyone who said so.  This team started out basically off the radar entirely and finished with a #2 seed.  They also beat DUKE by 27, UNC by 26, won the ACC Regular Season, won the ACC Tournament and look solid at every single position.  I find it to be a serious error that they weren’t given a #1 seed and someone somewhere will rue the chip they just put on these guys’ shoulders.

Georgetown:  If it isn’t Miami as the most impressive, it’s Georgetown.  This team, led by Otto Porter, has blown expectations out of the water… which, probably wasn’t hard to do considering they had none from anyone. Seriously?  This team didn’t get a single vote in the preseason rankings and now are sitting on the #2 line?  Job well done, JT3.

Rather than keep saying the same thing I have now said for Miami and Georgetown let’s just go ahead and name the other 9 teams that have really shown up this year (by way of final rankings) when no one expected them to: New Mexico, St. Louis (no better way to honor Majerus than what St. Louis is doing: winning), Kansas State, Marquette (Buzz at his best?), Oklahoma State (a team that was not projected to even get a bid to the NCAA Tournament and now sits as a #5 seed), Pittsburgh, VCU (Shaka Smart, anyone?), Oregon (won the Pac 12) and St. Mary’s (Dellevedova. Can't forget that name).

The point of this is simply to show that nothing is certain.  Just when all of Big Blue Nation was ready to start packing their bags for Atlanta, they find themselves trying to both figure out what happened against Robert Morris and sell their Final Four tickets to friends they know in Coral Gables.  That’s what makes this time of year so fun.  This is March Madness- there’s nothing like it… and what’s more maddening; it’s often nothing like you thought it would have been.