History Repeats Itself

Today is March 1st, 2013. March Madness has not arrived yet (I know this because my planner still indicates eighteen more days until Christmas in March); but oddly enough, this whole season has mirrored March Madness. Every time a team gets a little bit of steam, BOOM, down they go. This is happening all over the country; night after night, team after team. I bet this will be the most maddening tournament in recent history. Or, you know, it’ll go all chalk.

That said; could you even venture a guess as to what chalk would be right now? (Well, no, because the brackets aren’t drawn yet, but you get my point). Not one team out there is likely to take over the field; and I am expecting to see this tournament pull out all the stops. Could this be the year a #16 seed beats a #1 seed? I wouldn’t for one moment bat an eye at that idea.

So, this got me thinking- there has to be some smoking gun to open my eyes to the outliers of this tournament, right? Seek and ye shall find. I made a list of the teams I think pose the greatest threat to cutting down the nets in Atlanta. And of course some I had to throw in there because while they may not be all that threatening, due to their recent surges, I’m not comfortable discounting them just yet.

My list is as follows (in no particular order):

Indiana

DUKE

Michigan

Florida

Louisville

Syracuse

Kansas

Gonzaga

Ohio State

Miami

Georgetown

Michigan State

Arizona

Marquette

UNC

NC State

Notre Dame

Butler

Akron

Creighton

Saint Mary’s

VCU

Wisconsin

Kansas State

Saint Louis

Oklahoma State

Memphis

I poked and prodded through all 27 of these teams' statistics- their points per game, players, coaches, home records, neutral records, road records… everything but the color of their uniforms, really. And finally, something stood out. All of these 27 teams have had a losing streak at some point in the season except for 6. Check it:

Indiana: No losing streak to date

DUKE: No losing streak to date

Michigan: 2 game losing streak to date: Wisconsin, Michigan State

Florida: No losing streak to date

Louisville: 3 game losing streak to date: Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown

Syracuse: Two 2 game losing streaks to date: Villanova, Pittsburgh and Georgetown, Marquette

Kansas: 3 game losing streak to date: Oklahoma State, TCU, Oklahoma

Gonzaga: No losing streak to date

Ohio State: 2 game losing streak to date: Michigan, Indiana

Miami: 2 game losing streak to date: Arizona, Indiana State

Georgetown: 2 game losing streak to date: Marquette, Pittsburgh

Michigan State: 2 game losing streak to date: Indiana, Ohio State

Arizona: 2 game losing streak to date: California, Colorado

Marquette: No losing streak to date

UNC: Two 2 game losing streaks to date: Virginia, Miami and Miami, DUKE

NC State: 3 game losing streak to date: Virginia, Miami, DUKE

Notre Dame: 2 game losing streak to date: UConn, St. John’s

Butler: No losing streak to date

Akron: 2 game losing streak to date: Creighton, Detroit

Creighton: 3 game losing streak to date: Indiana State, Illinois State, Northern Iowa

Saint Mary’s: 2 game losing streak to date: Pacific, Georgia Tech

VCU: Two 2 game losing streaks to date: DUKE, Missouri and Richmond, La Salle

Wisconsin: 2 game losing streak to date: Iowa, Michigan State

Kansas State: 2 game losing streak to date: Kansas, Iowa State

Saint Louis: 2 game losing streak to date: Temple, Rhode Island

Oklahoma State: 2 game losing streak to date: Gonzaga, Kansas State

Memphis: 2 game losing streak to date: VCU, Minnesota

One would guess the occurrence of losing streaks could allow us to trim down the list of potential contenders, but only if those statistics have shown to mean something in the past. So, have they? Oh, they have. Check it:

Since UNLV cut down the nets at the end of the 1989-90 season, only 6 teams that went on to win it all have been involved in a losing streak at any point of the regular season:

UNC 1992-93

Arizona 1996-97

UConn 2003-04

Florida 2005-06

Florida 2006-07

UConn 2010-11

The other 17 teams never lost consecutive regular season games.

Over the course of 23 years, 74% of the National Champions have never strung together back-to-back losses. Read differently: Over the course of 23 years, only 26% of the National Champions have overcome dropping at least two consecutive regular season games on their way to climbing the ladder and cutting down the nets. In a normal year that matters. In this crazy year where nothing seems to make any sense, it may really matter.

It at least matters today, March 1, 2013, when we are all trying to find something to separate some teams from the pack. Each week thousands of fans write in to every single analyst looking for some sort of reassurance as to why their team stands a chance to win it all. Well, for 6 of these fan bases, I just gave you some really good ammo. But don’t hang your head, other 21 teams; they’re just numbers. And hey, Bluejays, Cards, Jayhawks and Wolfpack fans- don’t get discouraged about your three losses in a row- it didn’t stop the Gators in 2006 (the only team since 1990 to have more than two consecutive regular season losses- three to be exact- and still go on to win it all).

Keep an eye on those 6 though. There are still enough regular season games left to trip up 5 of them (Indiana, DUKE, Florida, Butler and Marquette). Oh, and don’t look now but Indiana, DUKE, Florida and Butler are each sitting on a loss heading into this weekend. Marquette is safe, at least until next week. And Gonzaga? After surviving BYU’s rally last night, they are sitting on a win as they head back home to take on Portland this Saturday. Did I mention that this will be their final game of the regular season? Yep, Gonzaga is heading into the post-season having had zero losing streaks this year. As history has shown here, that zero may be the most important number of their year. (Vegas odds had Gonzaga as a 12-1 favorite to win it all only a few days ago… you may want to go ahead and lock in those odds.)

So Merry Christmas to all! Or as some prefer to say: Happy March Madness!